Compass Staff |
Uncertain times have a way of blurring everything. Signals and noise start to feel indistinguishable, and leaders and employees alike can find themselves overwhelmed by the deluge of inputs — predictions, frameworks, trend reports — all competing for their attention. The protracted nature of today’s uncertainty only heightens that sense of unease.
And yet, moments like this also give us more agency than we might realize. When familiar models stop working, the task is not to predict the future perfectly, but to focus on what’s emerging and decide what deserves our trust and, more importantly, our focus. In that spirit, we asked Guild’s executive leaders to share the signals they’re watching most closely as we head toward 2026. Their perspectives offer a way to move from reacting to uncertainty toward learning from it.
Signal No. 1: Workforce mobility is emerging as a metric that predicts everything.
The most overlooked signal of 2026 will be mobility. Workforce mobility is slipping even as disruption rises, and leaders who track internal moves, and the impact of those moves, will predict performance earlier than the P&L. Career visibility will emerge as a retention technology, and capability planning will finally replace headcount planning as boards push for a “skills balance sheet” and visibility into time-to-skill and time-to-impact. - Kristie Griffin, vice president of talent
The real advantage lies not in predicting perfectly, but in learning early — and acting with intention before today’s signals become tomorrow’s expectations.
Signal No. 2: The creativity dividend is becoming a defining AI productivity metric.
Efficiency was the first phase of AI transformation; creativity will be the second. The most forward-thinking companies will measure not how much time AI saves, but what employees do with the time it gives back. The creativity dividend — curiosity, imagination, bold thinking — will replace speed as the new productivity standard. The best companies will go a step further, intentionally designing where and how to infuse that creativity to unlock growth vectors that were previously unattainable or even unfathomed. “The smartest question a leader can ask isn’t, ‘How much faster are we? It’s, ‘What did we create with the time we saved?” - Alana Brandes, chief people officer
Signal No. 3: The skills gap is being redefined.
In 2026, one of the biggest misconceptions about the workforce will be that the “skills gap” is defined by entirely new skill sets. In reality, many of the same skills, like data analytics, communication, and research, will persist across thousands of jobs. What’s changing isn’t the skills themselves, but the expectations of how they’re applied. The tools, technologies, and methods that underpin these skills are evolving rapidly, particularly with AI’s integration into workflows. This means upskilling won’t just be about learning new skills, but relearning how to do familiar work in fundamentally new ways. - Matthew J. Daniel, senior principal for talent strategy
Signal No. 4: The premium on human judgment is rising.
In 2026, the idea that AI can operate independently will finally fall apart. This past year of hype made it easy for companies to assume the tools would be ready to run on their own, but next year makes clear that AI still depends heavily on human oversight, interpretation, and direction. Organizations that over-automated or skipped the human layer will struggle, while those that invest in people, especially in roles that bridge AI and workflow, will be the ones who actually move forward. The most transformative impacts outside of engineering organizations will show up first in finance, marketing, and sales where AI is closest to real operational maturity, but only in companies that pair technology with deep human involvement. - Lauren Krabbe, senior director of product design
Signal No. 5: The nature of high performance is rising.
What counted as high performance last year will look much different next year, because the baseline expectations for talent are going to shift. As AI becomes part of daily work, companies can no longer rely on the same hiring requirements they always have. Experience integrating AI into workflows is still treated as a nice-to-have today, but it will quickly become an assumed skill. And as AI takes on more repeatable tasks, organizations will need to clarify what they expect people to do with the additional time and capacity.
That clarity will become a competitive advantage. The companies that recognize this shift and revise their talent expectations will gain ground. They will look for people who can use AI naturally, adapt as roles evolve, and deliver higher-value work as routine tasks are automated. Companies that keep hiring against outdated profiles will miss what the workforce transition actually requires. The real differentiator will be whether an organization evolves its understanding of what talent must bring to an AI-shaped environment. - Crissy McConnell, director of talent acquisition
Clarity comes from choosing what to pay attention to
As uncertainty intensifies, the ability to choose what deserves attention becomes a strategic advantage. It's never about predicting perfectly, but in learning early — and acting with intention before today’s signals become tomorrow’s expectations.
