Matthew Daniel and Dustin Albright |
Throughout much of 2025, manufacturing and industrial HR leaders have heard grave warnings of the cliff coming: growing skills gaps, vanishing institutional knowledge as workers retire, and declining perceptions of the sector among younger generations. While 3.8 million new manufacturing jobs are projected to open by 2033, according to the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte, nearly half may go unfilled due to talent shortages.
Urgent as these warning signs are, they obscure a different kind of opportunity for HR leadership. Instead of fixating on what may be missing — budget, headcount — leaders should shift the question to: What do we already have, and how can we use it better?
At a time of modest forecasts for growth in the manufacturing sector — 3.4% for sales and just 1.2% for capital investment, according to the National Association of Manufacturer’s Q1 2025 outlook — the smart move is not necessarily reinvention, but rather coherence, where existing programs work together to deliver targeted, compounding value.
In times of crisis, many companies assume they need to start fresh to future-proof their workforce. In reality, the pieces are already in place. What’s needed is orchestration.
Consider that for manufacturing HR leaders and their teams, many of the foundational elements to endure these uncertain times, close the talent gap, and drive measurable business impact are already in place: education and tuition benefits, upskilling and reskilling initiatives, coaching and mentorship infrastructure, credential partnerships, and internal-mobility plans for top talent. The challenge is to connect, maximize, and update these tools to better reflect the realities of today and tomorrow, rather than hit the panic button and start over.
Based on our experience and analysis of real-world case studies of Guild partners, reconciling these often-disparate talent-development tools can provide stability to your people and forward momentum for your business. Here’s what that might look like.
1. Connect the dots between disparate learning programs.
Take traditional tuition reimbursement (TR). While well-intentioned, these programs can be costly and difficult to administer for organizations, not to mention burdensome for the employee. Frontline workers often lack visibility into the full range of education options and, without structured support and curation by leadership, employees default to what they know — local community colleges or brand-name online programs. Plus, fronting the cost for education can be financially difficult. As a result, employees miss out on more strategic, business-aligned opportunities. That’s why the smartest next move during this time is reconciliation, not reinvention.
HR leaders should shift from passive funding models to actively curating and qualifying the programs, including TR, that build the skills they need most. That means selecting outcomes-driven programs designed for the learners who use them while simplifying the decision process for employees. The goal is not necessarily to add more options but to offer better, more targeted ones that have better career prospects for learners and business impact for your executives. Simple smart moves you can take now:
Pick the programs that align with your business;
Set funding levels that remove barriers; and
Direct learners into the programs that matter.
Through it all, employees need support in the form of coaching and advising. For Thomas Chastain, a PepsiCo warehouse supervisor, coaching became the difference between starting a degree and finishing it. His Guild coach provided far more than academic support; he offered an unbiased sounding board and personalized encouragement during life’s inevitable stressors. “It may not have been about school,” Chastain told us, “but just what hurdles I was facing… and then having him go, ‘Well, what are we going to do about it?’”
2. Combine degrees and short-form credentials with intention.
Should your workers get a degree or a certificate? To meet the moment, HR leaders and their teams must have a deliberate strategy for balancing both: the four-year degree and stackable, short-form credentials.
It’s important to note that, given the option, many employees across manufacturing choose short-form certificates that are skill-focused, geared toward upskilling in high-need areas, and easier to balance with life on the factory floor. In fact, in the four years between March 2021 to March 2025, Guild observed a 4.3x increase in the share of new learners enrolling in short-form programs.
At the same time, degrees remain a critical foundation — by 2031, 43% of all U.S. jobs will still require at least a bachelor’s degree, according to Georgetown University data. Today, roughly half of the open positions in manufacturing require at least a bachelor’s degree, according to Carolyn Lee, the president and executive director of the Manufacturing Institute, which projects that a significant number of manufacturing jobs will require bachelor's degrees or higher by 2033.
That’s why leaders must resist false tradeoffs and embrace coherent strategies that fuse certificates and degrees into a unified learning architecture.
Case in point: To meet fast-evolving technical demands and close critical skill gaps on the production floor, one leading manufacturer Guild worked with launched a suite of modular, short-form programs in areas like PLC (programmable logic controller) and CNC (computer numerical control) programming, electrical systems, and hydraulics. These offerings were designed for frontline production workers and paired with flexible access to individual engineering courses — spanning electrical, mechanical, industrial, materials, and robotics disciplines — without requiring full degree enrollment.
To support advancement for more experienced technicians, the company also introduced pathways like engineering technology degrees with embedded support tailored for working adults. The early signal: It’s working. Within just two months, hundreds of employees applied for the Guild co-created program, indicating strong demand for role-relevant, career-aligned learning.
By integrating both credentials and degrees into a cohesive strategy, HR leaders can turn existing offerings into a more coordinated, future-ready ecosystem — no overhaul required.
3. Treat talent like a portfolio, not a pipeline.
That same principle applies to how we think about talent investment overall. The real barrier is not necessarily limited resources. It comes down to the false dichotomies we’ve internalized: degrees or certificates, entry-level or leadership, short-term impact or long-term growth. The most forward-looking manufacturers are moving beyond either/or thinking and treating their talent strategy like a portfolio — not a pipeline. The frontline keeps operations running. Supervisors keep teams aligned. Both need support.
Guild has seen success with layered programs: offering certifications and advancement paths for early-career employees, while also providing development for experienced managers navigating digital transformation and hybrid work.
One employer that Guild worked with built an inclusive program accessible to everyone — from production associates to line leaders. Roughly two-thirds of enrollees came from the frontline, a clear signal that demand for skill development isn’t exclusive to managers. When access is equitable, the frontline shows up — ready to grow, contribute, and lead — and leaders continue to prove their appetite for self-development, especially when it strengthens their ability to lead through change.
To maximize ROI, the smartest manufacturers treat learning as a shared infrastructure — one that cuts across job levels, business units, and learner types. They manage talent like a portfolio: different assets, different timelines, but with a shared goal (strategic growth).
Your workforce advantage is already in motion.
In times of crisis, many companies assume they need to start fresh to future-proof their workforce. In reality, the pieces are already in place. What’s needed is orchestration. We know from our experience that the best HR leaders act like system architects: selecting the right building blocks, removing friction for learners, and aligning development pathways to high-value roles.
This is what turns workforce development from a sunk cost into a strategic engine. And in a moment defined by uncertainty and competition, that shift makes all the difference.
